By Artificial intelligence made one of the early predictions of the 2026 World Cup by placing Spain alongside France as a favorite to win the tournament. Two matches into group play, that forecast has not been disproven — but the biggest early statement may be coming from the host nation.
A Bank of America survey released before the tournament found that roughly 40 percent of football supporters expected France to lift the World Cup trophy. Fans also backed Kylian Mbappé to win the Golden Boot. Microsoft’s Copilot AI tool agreed that France was a leading contender, but added Spain as having an equal probability of winning the title, according to CNBC.
The early standings have given both sides something to point to. France has opened Group I with two wins, six points, six goals scored, and a plus-five goal differential. Spain, meanwhile, sits atop Group H with four points after two matches, having scored four goals without conceding.
But the United States has delivered the sharper early surprise.
The Americans have won their first two matches, beating Paraguay 4-1 in their opener before defeating Australia 2-0 in Seattle. The results gave the U.S. six points, six goals scored, one goal allowed, and a plus-five goal differential through two matches.
More importantly, the United States has already won Group D. The Americans’ victory over Australia clinched a place in the round of 32, and Paraguay’s win over Türkiye ensured that the U.S. could not be caught for first place.
"AND THE BUILDING SHAKES IN SEATTLE!"
John Strong with the Fox call as Alex Freeman's goal counts after review to give the USMNT a 2-0 lead over Australia. ⚽️🇺🇸🎙️ #WorldCuppic.twitter.com/5vQkE7cEAd
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) June 19, 2026
That marks the first time since 2010 that the United States has won its World Cup group. It also gives Mauricio Pochettino’s team the luxury of entering its final group match against Türkiye with advancement and seeding already settled.
The rest of Group D remains unsettled. Australia and Paraguay both have three points, though Australia sits second on goal differential. Their final group match will determine who claims the second automatic qualifying spot, while the third-place finisher will wait to see whether it advances as one of the tournament’s top eight third-place teams. Türkiye, still without a point, has been eliminated.
The U.S. start has also changed the tone around the team. Instead of merely surviving the group stage as a co-host, the Americans have controlled it. They have scored freely, defended well, and put themselves in position to pursue the first perfect group-stage run in U.S. World Cup history when they face Türkiye.
That does not make the United States a favorite on the level of France or Spain. The AI prediction still points toward the traditional European powers, and both have opened the tournament in position to advance. But the first week has already shown the limits of pre-tournament forecasting.
Fans picked France. AI elevated Spain. The standings, for now, have added a third storyline: an American team that has turned home-field opportunity into a commanding start.
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